Projecting climate change impacts on Mediterranean finfish production: a case study in Greece

Abstract Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed investigate effects drivers on Greek aquaculture, representative country with leading role sector. Using farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass meagre were developed, environmental forcing was used simulate changes production profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 RCP85. The temperature extreme weather events at individual levels considered along that husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, location (inshore, offshore) nine regions. simulations suggest level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures future terms growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, have large effect growth projected shifts climatic cues. However, this will be largely offset by adverse population level. Such more frequent and, depending intensity one assigns them, they could cause losses biomass profits range mild detrimental industry. Overall, these results provide quantification some important sector suggesting possibilities emerging Therefore, contribute improving sector’s readiness tackling future.